Predicting what an NFL team will do when assembling a 53-man roster after final cuts is largely a fool’s errand. Luckily for those of you reading this, I am a bit of a fool, so let’s spend some time trying to think through what the Green Bay Packers and general manager Brian Gutekunst will due on Tuesday when the team announces its initial roster following the cutdown deadline.
As a disclaimer, this is my prediction for what the Packers will do, not what I think they should do, as I will note multiple times over when breaking down a few individual positions.
Quarterbacks
Lock: Jordan Love
On the Bubble: Sean Clifford, Michael Pratt
If it were me making the decision, Clifford would be gone and I’d be looking for a veteran backup in the trade market or on the waiver wire. But I’m not in Brian Gutekunst’s shoes (and everyone should be grateful for that).
Ultimately, however, I can’t shake this odd feeling that the Packers will not acquire an outside backup QB and end up keeping both of these players through Tuesday’s deadline, so let’s go off the rails right away. This is my gut telling me what it thinks they will do rather than what I would do, but I could see the team trying to work the waiver wire a bit in an effort to not lose either one. I suspect that the team will still prefer Clifford to Pratt head-to-head, and the rookie might have a better chance of clearing waivers and making it to the practice squad if the Packers waive him on Wednesday. Doing it this way gives them a roster spot to use on a waiver claim on a player at another position cut by another team on Tuesday.
Final Prediction (3): Love, Clifford, Pratt
Running Backs
Lock: Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd*
Likely: AJ Dillon, Emanuel Wilson
Probably Cut: Ellis Merriweather, Nate McCrary
The new rule about players going on Injured Reserve prior to cut-down day and still being eligible to return helps the Packers here, as Lloyd is a logical candidate for that pathway. That leaves the Packers likely keeping three backs, presumably with the hopes of bringing Merriweather back on the practice squad.
Final Prediction (3): Jacobs, Dillon, Wilson (Lloyd on Injured Reserve)
Wide Receivers
Locks: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks
Likely: Bo Melton
On the Bubble: Malik Heath, Grant DuBose
Probably Cut: Julian Hicks, Dimitri Stanley, Samori Touré, Jalen Wayne
To keep seven or not to keep seven? That is the question. It would be a shock if Melton doesn’t make the team, while Heath has come on in the last two weeks following DuBose’s nice preseason opener. Still, DuBose does a lot of good things despite not being involved in the passing game much, and that includes special teams coverage and run-blocking.
Ultimately, I want to keep seven but if I believe they keep all three QBs as well as a certain number at cornerback that I will address in a bit, I don’t see them finding room for all of the receivers. Given Heath’s contributions on offense last season, I think he’s less likely to clear waivers than DuBose (and I think the same might be true of Kalen King at cornerback). Sorry, Grant.
Final Prediction (6): Doubs, Reed, Watson, Wicks, Melton, Heath
Tight Ends
Locks: Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave
Likely: Tyler Davis
On the Bubble: Ben Sims, Joel Wilson
Probably Cut: Henry Pearson, Messiah Swinson
After the two second-year stars, Davis is all but assured a spot because the coaching staff loves him. I don’t, which is why I can’t bring myself to put him in the “lock” category, but he probably might as well be there. That said, he did miss Saturday’s game with a shoulder injury, but unless that injury is serious enough to land him on injured reserve, he probably has a spot.
I don’t see the Packers rostering fewer than four tight ends, however. They just don’t do that in the LaFleur era, so the decision comes down to Sims or Wilson. They liked Sims enough to claim him on waivers a year ago, but it feels like Wilson has outplayed him in preseason action. Flip a coin, but I’ll take a chance on Wilson being the pick.
Final Prediction (4): Kraft, Musgrave, Davis, Wilson
Offensive Linemen
Locks: Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Jordan Morgan, Zach Tom
Likely: Andre Dillard, Jacob Monk, Sean Rhyan
On the Bubble: Travis Glover, Caleb Jones, Royce Newman, Kadeem Telfort
Probably Cut: Donovan Jennings, Lecitus Smith, Luke Tenuta
You could tell me that any or none of the bubble players would make the team and I’d believe you. The benefit that the Packers have, though, is that four of their starters could play tackle in a pinch. Indeed, it would not be crazy to think that an injury to either tackle would result in Morgan moving out to fill in, with Rhyan entering at right guard in his place.
Dillard and Rhyan rested with the starters on Saturday, suggesting that they’re safe. Meanwhile, Monk has played all three interior spots and probably makes the squad as a reserve option.
I’m left filling one or two spots with players out of the bubble group. Can the Packers find a trade partner for Newman before the cut deadline? I think they could get a 7th-round pick for him. If that’s the case, I won’t be surprised if Glover sticks for the time being, even if he did only take game reps at right tackle. His draft pedigree would likely give him an edge over the undrafted players, and a couple of them could make it back to the practice squad and get elevated on gamedays as emergency backups.
Final Prediction (9): Walker, Jenkins, Myers, Morgan, Tom, Dillard, Monk, Rhyan, Glover
Cornerbacks
Locks: Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine
Likely: Corey Ballentine
On the Bubble: Kalen King, Robert Rochell
Probably Cut: LJ Davis, Gemon Green
After the top four, Ballentine has been the next man up for some time, and he acquitted himself very well in some spot start duty last season. He also signed a deal that included a half-million dollar signing bonus, so the Packers would eat a decent amount of money if they were to let him go. He has made no glaring mistakes in preseason games, so he’s in as CB5.
The question becomes whether the Packers keep a sixth, and if so, whether it will be King or Rochell. King played every snap of Saturday’s preseason finale while Rochell missed the game with a hip injury, so that goes some distance to making that decision. King also forced a big fumble, and has at least shown flashes of the ability that had him in the conversation for an early pick before last season. In addition, Rochell spent time with four different teams last year, a sign that he’s not thought of highly enough that a team would likely claim him on waivers.
So do the Packers go with six corners? I think so, especially since each of Valentine, Ballentine, and King can be special teams contributors.
Final Prediction (6): Alexander, Stokes, Nixon, Valentine, Ballentine, King
Safeties
Locks: Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard, Evan Williams
Likely: Kitan Oladapo, Anthony Johnson, Jr.
On the Bubble: Zayne Anderson
Probably Cut: Benny Sapp III
McKinney signed for big money this season, Bullard has seemingly established himself as the starter next to him, and Williams is already carving out a role in some personnel packages with his playmaking ability.
Meanwhile, Oladapo has looked good in run support, while Johnson is getting more comfortable at safety in his third year at the position. My biggest question becomes whether Anderson has shown enough to stay on as a sixth safety. He’s a special teams maniac, someone Rich Bisaccia seems to love, and he was a final cuts waiver claim last year after the Bills let him go. I just think he’s a victim of a numbers game at the position and because all of the other new arrivals can help out on teams as well.
Final Prediction (5): McKinney, Bullard, Williams, Oladapo, Johnson
Linebackers
Locks: Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Eric Wilson, Edgerrin Cooper, Ty’Ron Hopper
On the Bubble: Kristian Welch
Probably Cut: Ralen Goforth, Chris Russell, Christian Young
The three veterans — Walker, McDuffie, and Wilson — appear set to start in base 4-3 alignments, with Hopper backing up and Cooper hopefully coming along quickly now that he’s working back from an injury. Welch has had a great finish to his training camp with big plays in each of the last two games. Combined with his special teams acumen, I don’t see the Packers letting him go on Tuesday.
Final Prediction (6): Walker, McDuffie, Wilson, Cooper, Hopper, Welch
Defensive Ends
Locks: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare, Lukas Van Ness
On the Bubble: Brenton Cox, Jr., Arron Mosby
Probably Cut: Deslin Alexandre, Brevin Allen, Keshawn Banks, Zach Morton
There are no questions about the top four, and instead the big uncertainty is around players 5 and 6 on the depth chart. Both Cox and Mosby played the same number of defensive snaps on Saturday and Cox had one more special teams snap (7 vs. 6). Cox also spent last season on the 53 and suited up in four games with limited action, but Mosby made more plays in the span of four minutes on Saturday than Cox has made in two preseasons’ worth of action.
Ultimately, I think the Packers will actually cut both to help make space for the extra players in the secondary and with the hopes of bringing one or both of them back on the practice squad.
Final Prediction (4): Gary, Smith, Enagbare, Van Ness
Defensive Tackles
Locks: Kenny Clark, T.J. Slaton, Devonte Wyatt, Karl Brooks
Likely: Colby Wooden
On the Bubble: Jonathan Ford
Probably Cut: James Ester, Keonte Schad, Spencer Waege
There are no surprises in the locks category here, and Wooden seems all but a sure thing to make the team. Like so many other positions on defense, the question is whether or not the team will want to keep an extra body. However, Ford seems like a good bet to pass through waivers and land on the practice squad, and players at other positions have made much better cases to be kept as a 6th man at their spot.
Final Prediction (5): Clark, Slaton, Wyatt, Brooks, Wooden
Specialists
Lock: Daniel Whelan (P)
Likely: Matt Orzech (LS)
On the Bubble: Anders Carlson (K), Greg Joseph (K)
Probably Cut: Alex Hale (K)
Whelan is the only specialist who is a sure thing for this roster. The kicking competition has been a mess all summer, with neither Carlson or Joseph impressing. Hale will all but assuredly be released and brought back on the practice squad given his recent designation as the Packers’ International Program player, which allows him to be on that unit without counting against the 16-man limit.
Ultimately, I’m betting that the Packers get a little wacky by keeping Carlson for now, while releasing Orzech. Hear me out.
First of all, Joseph is a vested veteran, meaning his full year’s salary would be guaranteed if he’s on the roster for week one. If the Packers keep him to start the season, they’d be locked into over a million dollars to him, even if they decided midway through the season that they need to make a change. With Carlson, that’s not the case. Carlson also has a bit of dead money from his rookie signing bonus that the Packers would have to eat if they release him — it’s not much, only about $120,000, but it’s not zero. The Packers could cut both and monitor the market, but my bet is that they won’t cut Carlson until or unless there’s another kicker who becomes available that they would prefer over him. It could well happen on Wednesday, though.
Meanwhile, Orzech is a vested veteran and would not be subject to waivers. Letting him go would free up a roster spot at final cuts, and the Packers could then re-sign him a day later, perhaps trying to sneak another young player through waivers and onto the practice squad after the initial round of cuts. Not coincidentally, this is exactly what the Packers did with Orzech last season.
Final prediction (2): Daniel Whelan, Anders Carlson
With that, here’s my final prediction in full:
QB (3): Love, Clifford, Pratt
RB (3): Jacobs, Dillon, E. Wilson
WR (6): Doubs, Reed, Watson, Wicks, Melton, Heath
TE (4): Kraft, Musgrave, Davis, J. Wilson
OL (9): R. Walker, Jenkins, Myers, Morgan, Tom, Dillard, Glover, Monk, Rhyan
CB (6): Alexander, Nixon, Stokes, Valentine, Ballentine, King
S (5): McKinney, Bullard, Williams, Johnson Jr., Oladapo
LB (6): Q. Walker, McDuffie, Wilson, Cooper, Hopper, Welch
DE (4): Gary, Smith, Enagbare, Van Ness
DT (5): Clark, Slaton, Wyatt, Brooks, Wooden
ST (2): Whelan, Carlson
